He suggested the PLA could become a leader in future intelligent warfare, drawing on capabilities in AI, cloud computing, big data, cyber offence and defence, and unmanned equipment.
Ni also called for the PLA to normalise military drills that cross the median line of the Taiwan Strait – the de facto sea border separating mainland China from Taiwan – and that approach the baseline of the island’s territorial waters and cut off transport.
It comes after the PLA staged unprecedented live-fire exercises that encircled the self-ruled island amid heightened tensions after then-US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. The trip angered Beijing, which saw it as a violation of its sovereignty.
The PLA also ramped up drills around the island after US President Joe Biden last month signed the latest National Defence Authorisation Act, which includes financing arms for Taiwan.
Ni said future PLA exercises could go beyond traditional amphibious landings and use intelligent warfare tactics for blockades and network disconnection.
According to Ni, both war games and virtual confrontation using unmanned systems could be used to achieve the goal of zero casualties and a “lightning-fast” seizure of an island.
He said simulation exercises could be conducted on the Taiwanese-controlled island of Taiping – located in the contested Spratlys in the South China Sea – as well as Dongsha and Penghu in the future.
The exercises could constitute a powerful deterrent against “Taiwan independence” separatists and foreign interference, in addition to conventional and nuclear deterrence, Ni wrote.
He also called for the use of economic, legal, psychological and cyber tools to contain Taiwan independence forces, giving the example of regulating cross-strait trade, stopping imports of agricultural products from areas where those forces are governed, and halting the free-trade framework between the two sides of the strait.
02:04
PLA scrambles record 71 warplanes near Taiwan in response to increased US military aid
According to a report released last year by the Centre for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University, the PLA has been using AI to simulate war games for invasion operations against Taiwan, as well as to identify undersea vehicles, track US Navy ships and deploy electronic countermeasures, among other tasks.
Meanwhile, American think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies warned in a recent report that while Beijing would be unlikely to succeed in seizing Taiwan in a hypothetical invasion of the island in 2026, such a conflict would wreak havoc on both sides of the strait, as well as the US and Japan, with total casualties running into the tens of thousands.
The National Defence Authorisation Act signed by Biden established the US military budget for the next financial year and includes US$10 billion worth of security assistance to Taiwan over the next five years, prompting protests from Beijing.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to take control of it. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. Washington, however, opposes any attempt to take the island by force.
