South China Sea: Beijing may need to show restraint ahead of US-Vietnam meeting

The summit was considered a watershed moment for Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy of using Washington-led alliances to counter China’s growing influence. Some Chinese media described the Camp David meetting as a “half-step away” from forming a Nato in Asia.

In a move that could further rattle Beijing, it has also been reported that Biden will visit Hanoi next month to bolster ties with Vietnam.

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Politico cited three sources as saying the two former wartime foes are expected to upgrade their relationship to a strategic partnership during the visit, which is likely to take place in mid-September.

The partnership would see priority “given to enhancing bilateral trade and investment, including e-commerce and the digital economy, and building robust supply chains through ‘friend-shoring’”, according to Carl Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia who specialises in Vietnamese affairs.

Thayer said closer ties between Washington and Hanoi could raise the alarm in Beijing, which sees a stable neighbourhood as a top diplomatic priority, particularly amid its geopolitical competition with the US.

“Beijing will continue to pressure Vietnam not to take steps that will harm China’s interests, but China is constrained in its reaction lest it forces Vietnam closer to the US,” said Thayer.

“Privately, China’s leaders will have to reassess whether their step up in pressure against Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea this year was counterproductive,” he said.

“This reassessment is now all the more urgent following the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit and the impending elevation in US-Vietnam relations.”

As US President Joe Biden, left, courts China’s Southeast Asian neighbours, including Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, right, China will be getting increasingly rattled. Photo: Reuters

Zhang Mingliang, a Southeast Asian affairs specialist at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said it was likely that Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, which has been a vocal critic of Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, would find a “mini-Nato” in Asia palatable.

“However, in order to avoid irritating its neighbour in the north, Vietnam will be cautious in its rhetoric but spare no efforts to support ‘Asia’s Nato’ through practical actions,” Zhang said.

In a joint statement after the Camp David meeting, the three countries reaffirmed their support for the central role played by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, but also went further in criticising China’s “dangerous and aggressive behaviour supporting unlawful maritime claims” in the South China Sea.

The criticism was apparently referring to a confrontation earlier this when after the Chinese coastguard fired water cannon to block a Philippine ship from resupplying troops stationed on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands.

Chen Xiangmiao, a research fellow with the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said the strategic coordination between the US, Japan and South Korea could have an impact in the South China Sea.

There could be an “encouragement effect” to rival claimants in Southeast Asia, Chen said.

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“[The Camp David summit] also sent a signal to Southeast Asia’s claimants there are many supporters to their claims and these countries may contend against China,” he said. “Increasingly, eyes would be turned to the South China Sea and more external powers, such as Australia, Canada and Europe would join, adding more uncertainties in the region.”

But Chen said Beijing is unlikely to bow to pressure.

“I don’t think there’s any room for China to pull back any more, unless it allows all the uninhabited islands to be occupied by other countries, which is impossible.”

Amid hostile competition between China and the US as well as the prolonged Ukraine war, countries in the region are facing an “increasingly polarised environment” that has forced them to adjust their foreign policies, Thayer said.

In December, Vietnam elevated its relationship with South Korea to a comprehensive strategic partnership, on a par with Russia, India and China, and it is expected to upgrade its ties with Australia to the same level.

“It is not coincidental that South Korea and Australia are treaty allies of the United States. South Korea’s importance is enhanced by the recent trilateral summit with Japan and the US,” Thayer said.

South China Morning Post