Italian Foreign minister Antonio Tajani visits China as country’s participation in Belt and Road Initiative hangs in balance

Wang Yiwei, an European affairs expert at Renmin University, said: “[Italy] didn’t really want to quit. It just wanted to send a message to the United States.

“This has been talked about for more than a year … This is because it still wants to get some more benefits from China.”

China urges Italy to play constructive role in relations with Europe

When Meloni visited Washington in July, she agreed to work with the US to strengthen ties in the face of the “challenges posed by China”.

Wang said China was trying to strengthen its relations with European governments in light of its tensions with the US and the European Union’s plans to “de-risk” relations with Beijing, and that Italy may try to use this as leverage.

He added that while China valued Italy’s continued participation in the scheme, it will not be “hijacked” by threats to quit.

Noah Barkin, a Europe-China expert at the Rhodium Group, said Tajani is on a “damage control mission” to ensure that quitting the scheme will not trigger retaliation from Beijing.

“Beijing is unlikely to start a new fight with a European capital at a time when it is desperate to attract European investment. The fact that it has not retaliated against the Dutch for their chip controls [which limit access to advanced chip-making technology] shows that Beijing is prepared to look the other way in pursuit of stability in EU-China ties,” he said.

Foreign investment in China fell to a 25-year low in the second quarter this year, while the number of EU investors who saw China as their top investmen tmarket also hit a record low, according to a survey by the European Chamber of Commerce in China.

Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said China is likely to keep trying to persuade Italy to stay in the initiative but he did not expect it to change its mind.

Italy defence minister: joining China’s belt and road plan an ‘atrocious’ decision

“Considering the current domestic political situation in Italy and Italy’s relationship with the United States and other countries, even if Italy does not officially announce its withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative, its degree of participation in the initiative will become significantly lower,” he said.

Belt and road-related investments in Italy dropped from US$2.51 billion in 2019 to US$810 million in 2020, according to data provided by Fudan University’s Green Finance and Development Centre.

More broadly, Chinese completed foreign direct investment in Italy dropped from US$650 million in 2019 to US$20 million in 2020 and US$33 million in 2021, according to data from the Rhodium Group.

China’s top diplomat plays up belt and road during trips to France, Italy

Enrico Fardella, director of ChinaMed and professor at the University of Naples L’Orientale in Italy, said when a previous Italian government signed up to the initiative in 2019 it saw it as a useful way of boosting exports and reducing the trade imbalance.

He said that although this had not happened it was “a bit too far-fetched” to blame the Belt and Road Initiative.

“The causes are mostly linked to the economic structure of both countries and in particular to the oversupplied structure of the Chinese economy that is in fact currently under serious stress,” he said.

He added that the Meloni government to wanted to correct the pro-China line of previous governments but “has no interest” in straining relations with Beijing and “avoid stepping into an anti-China crusade”.

He added that Tajani may try to use the visit to “give ‘face’ to Beijing” – for example by reaffirming support for the one-China principle – and bring back some practical benefits such as cultural agreements or luxury goods sales.

South China Morning Post