US tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China: Goldman Sachs

US tariffs on Chinese imports could put as many as 16 million jobs at risk in China, especially in the manufacturing of goods for retail and wholesale, said analysts at the US investment bank Goldman Sachs.

“If high US-China tariffs were to persist and Chinese exports were to fall precipitously, labour markets would surely feel the pressure,” the bank said in a research report released on Sunday, adding the 16 million jobs would be involved in the production of exports to the US and nearly one-quarter would be in the wholesale and retail spaces.

Goldman Sachs called communication equipment, apparel and chemical products “more vulnerable” than other manufactured goods thanks to their “high share in US-bound exports from China”.

US President Donald Trump, to ameliorate trade deficits and boost domestic production, has imposed tariffs totalling 145 per cent on Chinese imports so far this year, bringing the effective tariff rate to about 156 per cent. According to a fact sheet released by the White House, China now faces tariffs of up to 245 per cent on certain goods.

In response, Beijing has applied tariffs of 125 per cent on all US goods on top of earlier duties.

China’s 24-person Politburo, a high-level body of the Communist Party headed by President Xi Jinping, pledged to stabilise the economy and employment and called for measures to support those affected by the tariffs after a meeting last week.

The US elimination of tariff exemptions for shipments of low-value packages, unveiled amid the universal duty increases, are also “exerting employment pressure” on China’s retail and wholesale sectors, the researchers said.

South China Morning Post