Shenzhen lags China in GDP, exports as tech hub preps for tariff wave

China’s southern tech hub Shenzhen appeared to miss out on the spoils of the country’s first-quarter export wave, with the city’s gross domestic product growth of 5.2 per cent for that period falling short of the country’s overall 5.4 per cent in gains.

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The city’s exports declined by 8.7 per cent in yuan terms over the quarter while China recorded a 6.9 per cent gain, the product of a last-minute trade scramble as firms locked in orders before US President Donald Trump’s rapid-fire tariff increases took effect.

“While everyone was racing to export as much as possible before US tariffs kicked in, Shenzhen’s performance was far from ideal,” said Peng Peng, head of the Guangdong Society of Reform, a think tank affiliated with the provincial government.

“Compared to its economic performance last year, it has got worse, but compared to other cities in Guangdong province, it did all right.”

The provincial capital Guangzhou only saw 3 per cent growth in the first quarter, the lowest among China’s four first-tier cities. Shanghai’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.1 per cent, fairly close to Shenzhen. National capital Beijing was the only first-tier city not to underperform the country’s growth rate, recording 5.5 per cent.

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The disappointing numbers from Shenzhen have two major causes, Peng said: its growth in 2024 set a high baseline, and the city faces unique pressures from the tariff war and industrial transition.

Special Zone Daily, a media outlet under the Shenzhen government, identified several obstacles for the city’s economy in an article on Monday, saying “some enterprises are facing high costs and insufficient orders; foreign trade and exports are under pressure; consumer prices are hovering at a low level and the potential of domestic demand still needs to be stimulated.”

South China Morning Post

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