‘Not going away in 90 days’: Wall Street skeptics sit out rebound trade as data shows toll

Michael Mullaney’s mind was elsewhere during the market rebound this week, even as stocks surged, borrowing costs for Corporate America eased and Treasuries settled down.

Instead, the head of research at value-investing firm Boston Partners found himself checking and rechecking economic data that he fears show early signs of the damage already caused by Donald Trump’s trade war. Signals like dwindling Los Angeles shipping volumes, declining tourism-related travel and shrinking credit-card receipts in key consumer sectors.

His cautious stance runs counter to his peers plunging back into risk assets – relieved by signals from both Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the White House appears to be easing its muscular posture against top economic partners.

“This is not going to go away in 90 days,” says Mullaney, who helps oversee US$110 billion. “There’s still going to be significant impact on economic activity no matter where these tariff levels actually settle out.”

A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 17, 2025. Photo: AFP

While a full-on market meltdown may have been averted, he is holding cash, worried the fallout from the trade hostility may be too entrenched to avert. Time will tell if the will to caution is the correct one – or just another example in the long history of sceptics getting clobbered when American markets shake off malaise and rebound.

South China Morning Post