The World Is Draining Oil Reserves, Raising Pressure for a Peace Deal

The world is quickly depleting its stores of oil, putting more pressure on President Trump to reach a deal with Iran that would quickly get more fuel flowing out of the Persian Gulf. Vast stockpiles of oil, gasoline and other fuels have helped fill the hole in global energy supplies created by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. But those reserves, which companies and governments stash in giant steel storage tanks and underground salt caverns, are running low in some places. This week, U.S. government stockpiles were poised to hit their…

Cease-Fires, but No Peace

When is a cease-fire no longer a cease-fire? Yesterday, American forces struck Iran for the second time in three days. In response to U.S. strikes on Monday, Iran swiftly threatened counterattacks — and yet, so far, both sides say that negotiations are ongoing and the cease-fire is holding. There’s a cease-fire in Lebanon, too, in theory, but Israel has just significantly intensified its campaign against Hezbollah there. There’s a cease-fire in Gaza — but hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since it began in October. It’s remarkable how much firing…

Key questions over Mandelson vetting: did ‘mitigations’ cover links to China and Russia?

Ever since the Guardian revealed last month that Peter Mandelson was given security clearance against the advice of the UK government’s vetting agency, one question has dominated in Westminster. What were the concerns that led United Kingdom Security Vetting (UKSV) to tell the Foreign Office that his clearance should be denied in late January 2025, weeks before he was due to take up his post as ambassador to Washington? On Wednesday, the Guardian revealed several areas that multiple sources say contributed to that decision. UKSV identified concerns about associations Mandelson…

U.S. Might Restart Strikes on Iran, Trump and Hegseth Warn

The United States could end the month-old cease-fire and resume its attacks on Iran, President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday, a day after Mr. Trump dismissed Tehran’s latest offer to end the war as “garbage.” “We’re either going to make a deal or they’re going to be decimated,” Mr. Trump told reporters in Washington as he prepared to travel to Beijing for a summit with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. “One way or the other, we win.” Mr. Hegseth told a congressional hearing: “We have a…

Nations Brace for Long-Term Economic Woes as Trump Calls Iran Truce Plan ‘Garbage’

Countries were bracing on Monday for prolonged economic woes stemming from high energy prices after President Trump called the latest Iranian offer to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz “garbage” and declared that the cease-fire was “on massive life support.” Mr. Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, reiterated that Iran could not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and likened the truce announced last month to a patient with a “1 percent chance” of survival. Iran’s state-owned broadcaster reported on Monday that in its…

Who can claim victory if Iran ceasefire holds? An early winner is China

Beijing’s powerbrokers are credited with winning Iran over, although one analyst says they were ‘pushing an open door’ Middle East crisis – live updates As the world struggles to make sense of what, if anything, was achieved by the ceasefire deal announced by the US and Iran on Tuesday, one major power that stands to win regardless is China. Beijing’s powerbrokers are being credited with pushing Iran towards agreeing to the ceasefire, bolstering its status as a regional mediator. In China’s tightly censored domestic media, articles basking in the glory…

Trump’s threats to Nato reveal glaring absence of any strategy on Iran

If there was a moment when the absence of a US strategy on Iran was exposed, then this was it. Donald Trump demanded on Saturday that the UK, China, France, Japan and others participate in a naval escort for oil tankers through the strait of Hormuz. Despite launching the attack on Iran, with Israel, the White House does not seem to have fully anticipated what was likely to follow. Iran had few good military options for fighting back, but attacking US bases, US allies and merchant shipping in the Gulf…

Iran’s Hormuz blockade is its most powerful card against Trump and Israel. It won’t back down easily | Jack Watling

The US and Israeli decision to attack Iran has sent economic shockwaves around the world. About 20% of global oil supplies have been effectively blocked from transiting the strait of Hormuz since Iran began attacking ships, resulting in a huge jump in oil prices. Militarily, while the United States has the firepower to significantly reduce Iran’s capacity to use the strait as leverage, it is unlikely to be able to eliminate the threat entirely. Reopening the strait, therefore, is not only a question of military capabilities but of diplomacy, and…

Fears about nuclear war are reaching a fever pitch. Another grim sign of the times | Judith Levine

Intimations of world war three – the big one, nuclear Armageddon – didn’t arise yesterday. But they got more urgent when Donald Trump was elected the second time. In December 2024, Newsweek published a map of the “safest US states to live during nuclear war”. The article was not reassuring. “Nowhere is truly ‘safe’” from such consequences as “contamination of food and water supplies and prolonged radiation exposure”, said the senior policy director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. Another expert noted that “even a ‘small’ nuclear war…

‘Imperialist undertones’: global south condemns US-Israeli war with Iran

The US-Israeli war on Iran has been condemned as illegal across much of the global south, with China saying it was unacceptable to “blatantly kill the leader of a sovereign state”. Many countries objected that negotiations between the US and Iran over its nuclear programme and missile capability were not given a chance to succeed before Washington and Israel began bombing, and analysts often saw the war in terms of a colonial-style exercise of might. Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, offered condolences over the killing of the Iranian supreme leader,…